The Japanese public is being prepared for the reality of next year’s postponed Olympics, where athletes are likely to face quarantines, spectators will be fewer, and the delay will cost taxpayers billions of dollars. In the last several weeks, International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach has given interviews outside Japan and hinted at empty stadiums, quarantines and virus testing.
IOC member John Coates, who oversees Tokyo preparations, said a few weeks ago in Australia that the Tokyo Olympics face “real problems,” partially because of the numbers involved: 15,400 Olympic and Paralympic athletes to start with, and then staff, officials, media and up to 80,000 volunteers.
In the hours before an online news conference on Thursday with Tokyo Olympics spokesman Masa Takaya, Japanese media published several versions of virtually the same story citing unnamed sources: Next year’s Olympics will be “downsized,” “simplified,” or “very different.” Tokyo CEO Toshiro Muto has been open about slashing costs and “reducing service levels.” Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, in Thursday newscasts, sounded the same tune. “We will move ahead with the items that should be streamlined and simplified,” she said, giving no details on the downsizing and adding that the public would be consulted.
Empty Stadiums
One typical report said Olympic seating could be reduced, leaving in limbo the disposition of millions of tickets already sold. Most major sporting events around the world are waking up to the reality that they may have to host matches in empty stadiums. European football leagues that have restarted—like the Bundesliga—are already being held to spectator-less stands, and the other leagues will follow. But for the Olympics, which comes only every four years and for which people travel from around the world, tickets are going to be a battle ground. When the Games were deferred in March, 4.5 million tickets of the estimated 8 million tickets had already been sold. The organizing committee has budgeted income of at least $800 million from ticket sales, and may be reluctant to return it. The tickets carry a “force majeure” clause, which may permit organizers to avoid refunds.
That leads us to the second point—the tourism influx that a country sees when it hosts the Olympics. In 2016, when Rio hosted the Olympics, Brazil saw 66 lakh tourists, an increase of 4.8% from 2015. Income from tourism rose to $6.2 billion, up by 6.2%. Rio got 11 lakh tourists for the Games’ fortnight of which 4.1 lakh were foreigners. 94% hotels in Rio were occupied. For the Games in 2012, 4.7 lakh tourists visited London. Their spending at hotels and restaurants and Olympic tickets sales took the UK economy out of a recession between July-September. The economy grew by 1% and the Office of National Statistics said Olympic ticket sales had added 0.2 percentage points to the figures.
Millions of visitors from around the world is exactly the opposite of what a country would want if it wants to keep the virus at bay. But that would also mean losing out on a lot of money for a country that, like most others, is headed towards a pandemic-induced recession.
The spread of Covid-19 had already hit tourism in Japan, even before lockdown began globally, with a 58.3% fall in numbers in February 2020 in comparison to the same time in 2019. Olympic costs, though, have soared. The cost of the delay in Japan has been estimated at $2 billion to $6 billion. Neither the IOC nor organizers have given a figure for the costs to Japan, or who will pay for them. Even before it was deferred, it was estimated that the Games would cost $12.6 billion, nearly 10 times of what was estimated in 2013.
Unceremonious
One way of “simplifying” that will go down well with just about every stakeholder is to drastically cut down on the opening and closing ceremony programmes. These bloated showpieces are almost universally disliked. The 2016 opening ceremony lasted roughly five hours, with millions spent on opulent pyrotechnics. The budget for the two ceremonies in Tokyo stands at $117 million currently. These two ceremonies also see thousands of athletes gather together in one place—just what you don’t want if you want social distancing.
At the moment, there is talk of combining the opening and closing ceremony for both the Olympics and Paralympics. “Many discussions are ongoing covering various areas, including the ceremonies,” Craig Spence, a spokesman for Paralympics, told AP.
So many people
A pared down Olympics would most certainly require a limit on the number of people who are involved in the Games. At the 2016 Olympics for example, 11,238 athletes and at least an equal—by most estimates, higher—number of support staff and officials attended the Games. 35,000 volunteers were called on. 85,000 police and other armed forces were deployed. India, for example, sent 117 athletes, more than 50 support staff, and an estimated 90 officials from the Indian Olympic Association and the sports ministry. Canada had 375 support staff and 165 officials for its 313 athletes. Is there a way to curb the number of support staff without compromising performances? How about a cap on the number of officials who can attend from each country? Is there a way of being less ostentatious and more strategic with the security deployment?
And so many sports…
One of the measures could be to drop some of the non-core sports. Besides the 28 core sports, the Tokyo programme includes events like 3x3 basketball, freestyle BMX and Madison cycling, baseball/softball, karate, sport climbing, surfing, and skateboarding. The core roster already has basketball and there are enough track and road cycling events to keep even the craziest velo lovers happy. Surfing, skateboarding, or, even baseball, which all have their own robust cultures, do not need the Olympics. Come to think of it, football does not belong at the Olympics either—cutting that out of the programme would mean a very large reduction of athletes and officials—but being a core sport, that’s not about to happen.
Cutting calories
A seriously austere measure would be to reduce the spread of food available for athletes at the Games village. In 2016, 2500 people worked to serve five varieties of sweets, six types of fried dishes, seven options in the main course and four types of drinks. This was just the Brazilian cuisine on offer. Indian athletes, for instance, could order food of their choice and others could source a burger from McDonalds.
In 1948, when London hosted the Games with the wounds of a World War still fresh and food being rationed, athletes were allowed 5467 calories a day—the equivalent of what dock workers and miners got. The national ceiling then was 2600 calories per day. Olympic athletes may require between 3000 to 8000 calories a day depending on their sport. Many teams brought their own food and that is an idea worth exploring for Tokyo.
Tokyo may have no other option but to be ruthless.
